Thursday, September 21, 2017

Cycles of Growth & Stasis in Post WWII Davis, CA (274)

I was looking over a summary of growth, growth control, and development events in the last some 70 years in Davis and the idea came to mind that the series of them formed two long-term, two-stage cycles.

Twice since WWII and today, a phase of “growth” as a dominant mindset and policy was followed by a phase of “stasis.” Eerily, the first or growth phase of each cycle is about 11 years long and the second or stasis phase is (or might be) just less than 30 years long.

This to suggest that Davis’ history of growth and development and reactions to it might not be merely “one damn thing after another.” Rather, it might exhibit systematic and repetitive patterns that deserve (or require?) characterization as a cycle, defined in one dictionary as “a round of years . . . in which certain events or phenomenon repeat themselves in the same order and at the same intervals.”

A key feature of this cycle conception is that Davis might now be nearing the end of the second one. If It has the same “shape” in years as the first cycle, we should expect a third “great turning” in matters of growth and stasis within the next two years or so.

All of this is shown in overview in the accompanying chart titled “Cycles of Post WWII Growth and Stasis in Davis, CA.” Let me elaborate on what is shown there.